The answer to this question is no. Unfortunately, no it will not.
Let me preface this by saying that going into this summer, I was more excited for The Dark Knight Rises than the Avengers. And I also believe The Dark Knight will be a better film. But in this summer’s race for box office supremacy, The Avengers has already delivered the killing blow, setting records I don’t think will be broken anytime soon.
Now, don’t get me wrong. I loved The Avengers. I saw it three times already, and still would enjoy trying a viewing in 3-D. It was a great, fun action movie with a tight script and a lot of heart. My opinion that The Dark Knight Rises is going to be a more compelling, poignant film doesn’t stem from my disappointment with The Avengers. Iron Man and company exceeded my expectations in just about every way possible. But Rises is going to be better. It’s going to continue exploring deep themes of humanity and the human psyche. It’s going to be intense. When this is all said and done, Christopher Nolan’s Batman trilogy will go down in cinema history as one of the best, most expertly crafted trilogies ever.
A lot of pundits believe this will translate to more money, including our very own film expert, Gary Sundt. I disagree, and here are the two major reasons why:
Decreased hype: While I would love to believe the entire world cares as much for film as I do, that’s simply not the case; the majority of a film’s take has been, and always will be, dictated by casual audiences. And in this case, casual audiences just don’t have the same incentive to see Rises as they did its predecessor. Bane is a great choice of villain for this film, but he is not as iconic or well known as the Joker or Two-Face, both of whom headlined the TDK. Catwoman, for one reason or another, has taken a lot of criticism. And let’s not forget that, while extremely sad, the draw of “Heath Ledger’s final performance” is an unfortunate factor in that film’s success. When combined, all of these factors had a significant impact on TDK’s box office take. Rises looks epic, and is the conclusion to arguably the greatest trilogy of our generation, but it lacks the hype of its predecessor.
The Avengers was five films, four years in the making. Let’s not forget that The Avengers was not simply an ensemble film; it was THE ensemble film. Many movie goers were compelled to see the film simply because it was the culmination of five different films leading up to it, all of which range from very good (Iron Man) to simply solid (The Incredible Hulk). Four different superheroes were characterized and developed in their own films so that by the time they joined The Avengers, audiences were invested in them, their plights, and their flaws. Nothing like this has ever been attempted in Hollywood before, and audiences came in droves to watch how it would play out.
The Avenger Effect: This final facet is sort of the x-factor in this argument—will the success of The Avengers actually hurt Rises? It’s hard to predict. The release dates are spread wide enough so that The Avengers will not directly impact Rises, but the success of The Avengers does raise a few questions. One, for example, is audience taste. 3 years ago, TDK’s gritty, realistic take on Batman and superheroes was welcomed by audiences, who seemed opposed to more outright superhero adaptations. The Avengers changed all that. This is a film that featured cosmic cubes, alien invasions, demi-gods, and more, and audiences ate it up. Have tastes changed? Will audiences be open to a hero movie that makes them think after laughing and cheering for more lighthearted hero fare? Fanboys and the hardcore will see both, but is it going to be too much to ask general audiences to change gears? My hope is, for the most part, no. But when dealing with numbers this high, even a one percent decline is significant.
I’m all for Rises setting a new box office record when it releases. To be honest, I don’t really care either way; both films will be successful, which is my dream come true. But everyone seems hung up on whether Rises can outperform The Avengers, so I thought I’d put my two cents in. I think the important thing is that we as movie goers make sure not to judge success by which film outperforms the other, and remember to just be thankful for this amazing summer, where, more than ever, comic book movies have finally been completely legitimized as great films.
You know my opinion. What say you?
Gray Areas 
I gotta say this analysis seems pretty solid to me. Although the specific question of which film would make more money had not occurred to me, as soon as you asked it, I immediately came to the same conclusion. Avengers has just done too well–I think it’s set an almost insurmountable challenge for Dark Knight Rises.
The verdict is out on which film will be better, although I strongly suspect TDKR. But at the end of the day, I think the combination of the Avengers hype and TDKR missing the some of the factors that led to its predecessors inflated box office numbers make this pretty clear. I guess we’ll see come July.
I agree wholeheartedly. This may well turn out to be the best summer for superhero flicks yet. I loved Avengers, liked the new spidey and now TDKR is set to open. Whichever movie reigns supreme at the box office is a win for us, the fans. But really, TDKR can’t possibly top the Avengers. This is the first movie to ever encroach on the hallowed ground of that other indefatigable superhero – James Cameron(600 mil + at the domestic box office)
Let’s hope this kind of quality will be sustained.
I think you’re right about the best summer; the quality and quantity are unparalleled.